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==Discovering Topics==
 
==Discovering Topics==
  
According to a [http://www.bay12forums.com/smf//index.php?topic=169696.msg8071983#msg8071983 Future of the Fortress reply]:
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According to a [http://www.bay12forums.com/smf//index.php?topic=169696.msg8071983#msg8071983 Future of the Fortress Reply] 'Fortress [[Scholars]] do activity cycles, the length of which is 1-2 days (whether they are pondering or discussing etc.)  Once they get through 50 cycles, it rolls 0-50 vs. the number of completed cycles minus 50 to see if they get "breakthrough credit."  So at 51, they have a 2% chance, and at 100, they have a 100% chance.  Then, it resets the cycle number to zero and gives them breakthrough credit, based on a skill roll plus 100 (for discuss, the other researchers contribute half of their summed skill rolls.)  Based on the difficulty (1-4) of the topic, total lifetime breakthrough credit is then assigned a number of 50-sided dice.  An easy topic is dice=credit/2500, then /5000, then /10000, then /20000 for level 4 topics.  The number of dice cannot exceed 10.  Then roll these dice -- if you get a 50 on any of them, discovery!  This is a bit archaic, and I'm not suggesting it works particularly well.  But that is how it works.  Also: if they fail to get the breakthrough after the 50-sided rolls, they have a 2% chance of switching topics, or if their credit exceeds 100000, they always switch topics (though they keep the credit, so returning to the topic later gives them a decent chance at breakthrough.)'
<blockquote>
 
Fortress [[scholars]] do activity cycles, the length of which is 1-2 days (whether they are pondering or discussing etc.)  Once they get through 50 cycles, it rolls 0-50 vs. the number of completed cycles minus 50 to see if they get "breakthrough credit."  So at 51, they have a 2% chance, and at 100, they have a 100% chance.  Then, it resets the cycle number to zero and gives them breakthrough credit, based on a skill roll plus 100 (for discuss, the other researchers contribute half of their summed skill rolls.)  Based on the difficulty (1-4) of the topic, total lifetime breakthrough credit is then assigned a number of 50-sided dice.  An easy topic is dice=credit/2500, then /5000, then /10000, then /20000 for level 4 topics.  The number of dice cannot exceed 10.  Then roll these dice -- if you get a 50 on any of them, discovery!  This is a bit archaic, and I'm not suggesting it works particularly well.  But that is how it works.  Also: if they fail to get the breakthrough after the 50-sided rolls, they have a 2% chance of switching topics, or if their credit exceeds 100000, they always switch topics (though they keep the credit, so returning to the topic later gives them a decent chance at breakthrough.)
 
</blockquote>
 
  
 
For unskilled roles, some initial back-of-the-envelope calculations and some rough estimates observed through dfHack gives a basic idea of just how long research can take.  Note that player testing had found that the skill roll contributes a lot to the breakthrough credit.  Even dabbling dwarves can gain over 2000 breakthrough credit at once and may average around 1000 breakthrough credit.  Additionally the formula for the skill roll seems to have a very large spread, players have reported as low as 3000 breakthrough credit and as high as 25000 breakthrough credit awarded to a dwarf with legendary skill.  Analytically calculating from the algorithm Toady gave, it takes an average of 58.54 cycles to get a breakthrough credit. Player testing has confirmed breakthrough credits typically take 55-65 cycles, so this calculation seems plausible.  Likewise, player testing has not shown any correlation between skill level and number of cycles to get breakthrough credit.  An unskilled dwarf might average around 120+ cycles to get their first breakthrough die for a level 1 topic.  With only a single research die,  it would take an average of 2528 cycles to get a breakthrough. Pondering takes slightly over 2 days per cycle, so this would be around 14 years.  In a real fortress, the research dice and skill level will be increasing during the process.  However, in a real fortress, the scholars will also need to take breaks to eat, drink, and meet other needs. A more reasonable estimate is around 5-10 years for a breakthrough starting with no skills.  In short, research takes an unreasonably long time with an unskilled dwarf.
 
For unskilled roles, some initial back-of-the-envelope calculations and some rough estimates observed through dfHack gives a basic idea of just how long research can take.  Note that player testing had found that the skill roll contributes a lot to the breakthrough credit.  Even dabbling dwarves can gain over 2000 breakthrough credit at once and may average around 1000 breakthrough credit.  Additionally the formula for the skill roll seems to have a very large spread, players have reported as low as 3000 breakthrough credit and as high as 25000 breakthrough credit awarded to a dwarf with legendary skill.  Analytically calculating from the algorithm Toady gave, it takes an average of 58.54 cycles to get a breakthrough credit. Player testing has confirmed breakthrough credits typically take 55-65 cycles, so this calculation seems plausible.  Likewise, player testing has not shown any correlation between skill level and number of cycles to get breakthrough credit.  An unskilled dwarf might average around 120+ cycles to get their first breakthrough die for a level 1 topic.  With only a single research die,  it would take an average of 2528 cycles to get a breakthrough. Pondering takes slightly over 2 days per cycle, so this would be around 14 years.  In a real fortress, the research dice and skill level will be increasing during the process.  However, in a real fortress, the scholars will also need to take breaks to eat, drink, and meet other needs. A more reasonable estimate is around 5-10 years for a breakthrough starting with no skills.  In short, research takes an unreasonably long time with an unskilled dwarf.

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