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Editing DF2014 Talk:Topic

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So, I've noticed that specific topics use specific skills when they're being pondered about. I've thus added a new column with whatever skillgain tests I can make. There are some things we can sort of guess, for example, I guess most of the logic topics in philosophy use logician, and most of the form topics in history use record keeper, but I'll be good and actually fiddle my dwarves into pondering about the topic first before I make assumptions :< [[User:Therahedwig|Therahedwig]] ([[User talk:Therahedwig|talk]]) 19:11, 22 December 2019 (UTC)
 
So, I've noticed that specific topics use specific skills when they're being pondered about. I've thus added a new column with whatever skillgain tests I can make. There are some things we can sort of guess, for example, I guess most of the logic topics in philosophy use logician, and most of the form topics in history use record keeper, but I'll be good and actually fiddle my dwarves into pondering about the topic first before I make assumptions :< [[User:Therahedwig|Therahedwig]] ([[User talk:Therahedwig|talk]]) 19:11, 22 December 2019 (UTC)
 
:Doneish, can't get the propositional logic topic to appear though :( [[User:Therahedwig|Therahedwig]] ([[User talk:Therahedwig|talk]]) 22:06, 3 January 2020 (UTC)
 
  
 
==New Info From Toady==
 
==New Info From Toady==
  
I copy pasted Toady's comments on breakthroughs/discoveries from here: http://www.bay12forums.com/smf//index.php?topic=169696.msg8071983#msg8071983  I haven't worked out the full implications of Toady's comment yet, it might require some SCIENCE?  Anyway, I figured I would get it on the page for now and then come back to it when there has been more work figuring out the implications of this information.  I think, for example, this comment implies that we can estimate the average total number of 1-2 day cycles that are required for a breakthrough for level 1/2/3/4 topics.  It also implies that breakthroughs come faster if you can get particular Dwarfs to each focus on particular topics, as opposed to all Scholars working on a single topic at once or Scholars repeatedly changing topics. [[User:Scruiser|Scruiser]] ([[User talk:Scruiser|talk]]) 15:34, 1 January 2020 (UTC)
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I copy pasted Toady's comments on breakthroughs/discoveries from here: http://www.bay12forums.com/smf//index.php?topic=169696.msg8071983#msg8071983  I haven't worked out the full implications of Toady's comment yet, it might require some SCIENCE?  Anyway, I figured I would get it on the page for now and then come back to it when there has been more work figuring out the implications of this information.  I think, for example, this comment implies that we can estimate the average total number of 1-2 day cycles that are required for a breakthrough for level 1/2/3/4 topics.  It also implies that breakthroughs come faster if you can get particular Dwarfs to each focus on particular topics, as opposed to all Scholars working on a single topic at once or Scholars repeatedly changing topics.
 
 
I added some back of the envelope calculations to provide a rough estimate of time to make a breakthrough, and I ran into an ambiguity in Toady's description of the process.  Does the 2% chance of switching topic only start after more than 0 "dice" have been rolled on the chance to make a breakthrough?  In my current calculations I assumed so, but if not, then that means that unskilled Dwarfs will switch topics much more often than they make breakthroughs.  I haven't done any long forts focused on long term research in order to find out, but if anyone has this seems like something they would notice... [[User:Scruiser|Scruiser]] ([[User talk:Scruiser|talk]]) 21:07, 1 January 2020 (UTC)
 
 
 
I realized I had misread how Toadys comments and reworked the example calculations for breakthrough time.  I used the following matlab code to come up with the estimate of 8.54 additional cycles on average to get breakthrough credit:
 
  odds_of_finishing_at_ith_cycle(51)=0;
 
  odds_of_finishing_at_ith_cycle(1)=0;
 
  expected_value=0;
 
  for i=1:50
 
      odds_of_finishing_at_ith_cycle(i+1)=(.02*i)*(1-sum(odds_of_finishing_at_ith_cycle(1:i)));
 
      expected_value=expected_value+odds_of_finishing_at_ith_cycle(i+1)*i;
 
  end
 
 
 
[[User:Scruiser|Scruiser]] ([[User talk:Scruiser|talk]]) 02:18, 2 January 2020 (UTC)
 
 
 
 
 
I roughly confirmed the 58.54 number using dfHack and keeping track of the times pondered until the number reset and then recording the last number observed+1.  [[User:Scruiser|Scruiser]] ([[User talk:Scruiser|talk]]) 19:52, 18 January 2020 (UTC)
 

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